Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change is increasing the risk of flooding and sea-level rise in many parts of the world, with far-reaching implications for the health and wellbeing of individuals and communities. Adaptation is necessary to minimise the negative impacts of climate change that are already locked-in by historical greenhouse gas emissions. Holistic, systems-thinking approaches are required to understand the complex relationships between health, wellbeing, and climate change at the community level. Health and social equity must also be at the centre of adaptation planning and decision-making.
The aim of this research was to develop a qualitative model of the system dynamics of flooding and sea-level rise effects on health and wellbeing in a high-risk urban area, with an equity focus. I undertook a participatory system dynamics modelling process in South Dunedin, an area within the city of Ōtepoti Dunedin, in Aotearoa New Zealand. Domestically, South Dunedin is one of the most immediately vulnerable urban areas due to its physical geography and relatively high population density. Many of its diverse sub-communities are also at greater risk of harm from climate change due to existing structural inequities.
I conducted thirty-two individual interviews and two group workshops with community stakeholders, policymakers, and technical experts. I undertook a thematic analysis of the interview data, triangulating participants’ knowledge with that of the existing literature to develop a set of six qualitative Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs). These CLDs capture the reinforcing and balancing feedback behaviour that influence health and wellbeing in the context of climate change adaptation in South Dunedin, and were used as the basis for group learning activities in the workshops.
The CLD themes were: quality of housing, the housing market, economic effects, community-led development and participation in decision-making, the insurance market, and access issues. Together, these CLDs demonstrate how flooding and sea-level rise can exacerbate existing wellbeing issues such as poverty, poor quality housing, housing unaffordability, and underinvestment in the area.
This appears to be the first time that participatory system dynamics modelling has been used to understand the dynamic effects of climate change-related flooding and sea-level rise on health and wellbeing in an urban area, with the intention of informing adaptation planning and decision-making. Participants were guided through a process in which they developed a shared understanding of the complex feedback behaviour that can lead to negative or unanticipated system outcomes.
Intervention points were identified, with implications for adaptation planning and policy. These included well-planned investment to support climate resilience, community vibrancy, and quality housing that avoids gentrification and exacerbating inequities. Targeted land reclamation and the use of blue-green infrastructure may also support wellbeing. Importantly, community must be at the heart of adaptation decision-making to ensure effective outcomes and community agency.
Further research is needed to support participatory health and wellbeing-focussed climate change adaptation planning and decision-making in a wide variety of contexts. Future research in urban areas should continue to undertake systems-thinking approaches in order to gain a better sense of the generalisability of the themes identified here.