Abstract
Reducing carbon emissions within tourism is a crucial topic that has been discussed among practitioners, policymakers, and academics. Academic discussions often focus on measuring the carbon footprint of tourism, critiquing the industry's inadequate efforts in reducing emissions, and providing recommendations for national-level interventions. Destination marketers are frequently advised to adjust their strategies and target demographics to align with source markets with smaller carbon footprints. However, such discussions often overlook the insights of destination managers and their stakeholders, and their potential input into and contributions to decarbonising tourism. To bridge this gap, this research employs foresight as an approach to explore medium-term futures of tourism in light of decarbonisation in 2040 and to uncover implications for regional destinations and their management. The project integrates Scenario Planning and group work with a Futures Wheels methodology to comprehensively explore implications for regional destinations.
This exploratory study commenced by developing a set of future scenarios for tourism within the context of decarbonisation. The scenarios were developed based on literature review findings and refined through collaboration with international experts specialising in tourism's carbon footprint or futures studies. The scenarios considered external factors outside of the tourism, which could significantly shape the future state of tourism from various perspectives, including political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal aspects. Each scenario depicted a distinct and unique future for destinations. At the core of these mid-term scenarios, the most influential and least predictable factors guiding the future landscape of decarbonisation and tourism by 2040 were identified. The factors that exhibited the highest level of influence yet possessed the lowest predictability encompassed: the global tourism strategy and policy environment, the principle of leading by example, and the national strategy and policy environment. Additionally, the scenario elements emphasise the importance of addressing the carbon footprint in a comprehensive manner. Neglecting this aspect could lead to damaging of the overall image of the tourism industry.
In the next stage of the research, three regional tourism organisations in New Zealand and their stakeholders collaborated to create six Futures Wheels. The aim was to identify the potential implications and direct and indirect consequences of the newly developed future scenarios for tourism and decarbonisation by 2040.
The evidence collected in this research suggests that decarbonisation efforts at the national or global level could bring significant changes for regional destinations, including altered revenue streams, the need for different tourism products, increased costs, investment challenges, higher uncertainty, loss of community support, and added responsibilities for regional tourism organisations.
Regarding feasibility within the current regional destination management system, findings indicate that destination leadership, strategic planning, and product development require addressing as a consequence of the ‘Tourism and Decarbonisation 2040’ future scenarios. This suggests that more comprehensive approaches are needed beyond just focusing on shifts in destination marketing to manage decarbonisation of tourism at the regional destination level.
To advance discussions on tourism and its decarbonisation challenges, this study introduces the framework 'Tourism and Decarbonisation: Implications for Regional Destination Management.' This framework outlines the movements with focus on decarbonisation of tourism between global, national, and regional levels, highlighting leadership primarily from global and national entities while providing regional bodies with guidance on decarbonisation initiatives. It highlights the changes in destination leadership, planning, development, environmental management, and marketing due to decarbonisation efforts, underscoring the vital role of destination leadership and strategic planning for regional destinations and their management in future.
The results of this study not only serve as an exploration of tourism futures concerning decarbonisation and the implications these futures could have for regional destinations and their management, but they also highlight the ongoing discussion regarding the essential paradigm shift in destination management. Destination management organisations need to transition from mere marketing endeavours to adopting a more holistic approach centred on destination management, governance, and leadership.