Abstract
This thesis aims to forecast earthquakes impacts on New Zealand archaeological sites. Using a scenario of a south-to-north magnitude 8.2 earthquake on the Alpine Fault (known as the Af8 scenario), this research combines previously created hazard datasets that forecast the impacts of ground shaking, landslides, tsunami, and lake seiching with recorded archaeological sites using GIS technology. These combined datasets forecast some of the possible impacts of these hazards on recorded archaeological sites across the South Island (Te Waipounamu) of New Zealand (Aotearoa). This has been done by creating a system giving each hazard a corresponding Hazard Likelihood Number (HLN) indicating the severity of the hazard. Each site’s HLNs for individual hazards are combined to form an overall Earthquake Hazard Vulnerability Number (EHVN) that shows the forecast severity of this earthquake scenario on the archaeological site. The results show significant variation across the South Island in the EHVN, representing varying overall impacts. The West Coast holds most sites with a high EHVN, followed by areas in West Canterbury, Central Otago, and Fiordland. The areas forecast to be heavily impacted are in and around the Southern Alps (Kā Tiritiri o te Moana), formed by previous Alpine Fault earthquakes. A large portion of these are nineteenth century gold rush mining sites around these mountainous regions. The forecasted impacts suggest that aboveground brick and stone structures are in the most danger, with mixed results for those located
subsurface. The research has shown a wide gap in the knowledge of the impacts of earthquakes on archaeology in New Zealand and internationally. Several follow-up research suggestions have come out of this project, including replicating these results for other earthquakes, expanding the discussion to include stakeholders with interest in protecting this heritage and looking in depth at the impacts of earthquakes on Māori sites as a significant part of New Zealand’s past that have been under-protected in the past. It is hoped that this research will promote further work for a previously unconsidered impact of an earthquake that is likely to occur within the lifetimes of many of the people living in Aotearoa and consider impacts on
archaeology of other large earthquakes.