Abstract
The Antarctic marginal ice zone, the regularly wave‐affected outer band of the sea ice covered Southern Ocean, typically contains an unconsolidated ice cover comprised of smaller, thinner floes than the inner ice pack. Thus, it is a highly dynamic region and susceptible to rapid expansion and contraction, making it a focal area for understanding and predicting the response of Antarctic sea ice to a changing climate. This novel study uses unsupervised statistical clustering of sea ice data simulated by a global sea ice model (standalone CICE6 combined with a wave propagation module and prescribed ocean) to address the outstanding challenge of separating the marginal ice zone from the inner ice pack in sea ice data sets. The method identifies a marginal ice zone with the desired characteristics and floe size is shown to be the key variable in the classification. Simulated marginal ice zone widths are similar to those derived from satellite observations of wave penetration distances, but contrast with those using the standard 15%–80% areal sea ice concentration proxy, particularly during austral winter. The simulated marginal ice zone is found to undergo a seasonal transition due to new ice formation in winter, increased drift in spring, and increased rates of wave‐induced breakup and melting in summer. The understanding gained from the study motivates incorporation of wave and floe‐scale processes in sea ice models, and the methods are available for application to outputs from high‐resolution and coupled sea ice–ocean–wave models for more detailed studies of the marginal ice zone (in both hemispheres).
Plain Language Summary
The record‐setting responses of Antarctic sea ice extent to climate change over recent decades have generated intense research interest in the marginal ice zone at the outskirts of the ice cover. The presence of ocean waves in this region creates a granular ice cover composed of small floes, affecting heat fluxes between the atmosphere and ocean, whilst shielding inner‐pack ice, fast ice, and ice shelves from waves. Studies of the marginal ice zone are hindered by the lack of a pragmatic approach to extract the marginal ice zone from sea ice data, which aligns with its characterization as the regularly wave‐affected sea ice region. Most studies use a concentration‐based proxy, although it overlooks large wave‐affected areas. We develop new insights into the evolution of the marginal ice zone by applying a modern machine‐learning approach to model outputs, leveraging recent modeling advances. Our findings reveal a marginal ice zone composed of young, small floes during winter and older, fractured floes during summer. Simulated widths are consistent with wave‐penetration distance observations and provide evidence of the marginal ice zone's unique properties, including high melt rates. The proposed approach may provide the basis for future studies on its contribution to Antarctic sea ice variability.
Key Points
A new method to identify the Antarctic marginal ice zone is proposed based on statistical clustering of sea ice properties
Simulated marginal ice zone widths are similar to satellite observations of wave penetration distances
New understanding gained of differences in ice melt rates and drift speeds between the marginal ice zone and the interior ice pack