Abstract
The lapse rate feedback is the dominant driver of stronger warming in the Arctic than the Antarctic in simulations with increased CO2. While Antarctic surface elevation has been implicated in promoting a weaker Antarctic lapse rate feedback, the mechanisms in which elevation impacts the lapse rate feedback are still unclear. Here we suggest that weaker Antarctic warming under CO2 forcing stems from shallower, less intense climatological inversions due to limited atmospheric heat transport above the ice sheet elevation and elevation‐induced katabatic winds. In slab ocean model experiments with flattened Antarctic topography, stronger climatological inversions support a stronger lapse rate feedback and annual mean Antarctic warming comparable to the Arctic under CO2 doubling. Unlike the Arctic, seasonality in warming over flat Antarctica is mainly driven by a negative shortwave cloud feedback, which exclusively dampens summer warming, with a smaller contribution from the winter‐enhanced lapse rate feedback.
Plain Language Summary
Models project stronger surface warming in the Arctic than the Antarctic under climate change. A climate feedback in which more warming occurs near the surface than at higher altitudes in the atmosphere promotes this stronger Arctic warming. Antarctica's surface elevation is thought to weaken this feedback in comparison to the Arctic, but how this occurs is unclear. Here we show that Antarctic elevation weakens surface warming by changing the base state vertical temperature structure. When Antarctic topography is flattened in model experiments, Antarctica experiences more warming under climate change, resembling Arctic warming. Similarly to the Arctic, flat Antarctica warms most during the winter, but this seasonality is driven by different climate feedbacks in the Arctic versus Antarctic. These results indicate the importance of base state temperatures for warming under climate change and suggest that strong polar amplification is possible without local sea ice loss.
Key Points
Antarctic elevation causes asymmetry in climatological inversions, lapse rate feedbacks, and warming between the poles
In model experiments with flattened Antarctica, strengthened inversions lead to stronger lapse rate feedback and Antarctic amplification
Shortwave cloud feedback promotes seasonality in flat Antarctic warming; lapse rate feedback more strongly promotes seasonality in Arctic