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Betting Against Bitcoin: Evidence from Spot Bitcoin ETFs
Journal article   Open access   Peer reviewed

Betting Against Bitcoin: Evidence from Spot Bitcoin ETFs

Olena Onishchenko
Journal of behavioral and experimental finance, Vol.50, 101191
17/05/2026
Handle:
https://hdl.handle.net/10523/51065

Abstract

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Short selling Bitcoin sentiment
Using data from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), this paper provides the first evidence of informed short selling in spot Bitcoin ETFs. We show that shorting flows predicts negative ETF returns for up to five trading days, after which the effect dissipates. Short sellers increase their positions when Bitcoin investor sentiment reaches extreme optimism. Yet they do not exhibit the same contrarian trading behavior—selling short after price run-ups—that is commonly observed among equity short sellers. Overall, the results suggest that short sellers in spot Bitcoin ETFs are informed traders who exploit short-lived, sentiment-driven mispricing.
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Published (Version of record) Open Access CC BY V4.0
url
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2026.101191View
Published (Version of record) Open CC BY V4.0

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