Abstract
This paper extends the literature on climate change by asking 'Who believes in climate change?', 'Whose expectations regarding future climate coincide with scientific projections?', and 'Do beliefs and holding 'correct' expectations influence taking concerted action?' We find that 88% of survey respondents representing New Zealand's primary sector believe in climate change but that only 34% have expectations regarding future temperatures that coincide with scientific projections, and only 40% have expectations regarding future drought that coincide with scientific projections. We show that men, less educated respondents, those with long family histories of farming, and those who put greater trust in social media are more sceptical of climate change. Among respondents who believe in climate change, these same factors are also associated with lower likelihood that their expectations coincide with scientific projections of future climate scenarios. Furthermore, women and more educated people are less likely to under-estimate and more likely to over-estimate both temperature change and the incidence of drought relative to scientific projections. Finally, we show that previous pro-environmental action and future intentions to undertake pro-environmental action are positively associated with belief in climate change, but that having expectations that match scientific projections does not additionally affect uptake of pro-environmental action.