Abstract
Hydrocarbon-rich countries face complex challenges in transitioning to renewable energy (RES), particularly in sub-national regions economically dependent on oil, gas, and coal (OGC) extraction and export. This study investigates the regional capacity for the energy transition and the ability to adapt in four OGC-rich countries—Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, South Africa, and Australia—each with distinct governance structures, economic profiles, and RES potentials. Drawing on evolutionary economic geography and elements from Sustainability Transitions theory, we develop a conceptual framework to assess four key factors: OGC dependence, RES expansion, governance mechanisms, and regional planning capabilities. Using expert surveys and probabilistic analysis, we evaluate the current significance and projected future impact of these factors over a 10 year horizon. Results indicate persistent path dependencies and governance constraints in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, whereas Australia demonstrates greater adaptability owing to its federal structure and diversified economy. South Africa, despite decentralised governance, faces infrastructural and financial limitations that hinder transition planning. Across all cases, RES expansion is progressing, but community-level benefits and regional planning remain underdeveloped. Governance emerges as a critical enabler, yet its effectiveness varies widely. The findings highlight the need for enhanced capabilities in polycentric governance, inclusive stakeholder engagement, and integrated regional planning to support just and effective transitions. This comparative analysis emphasises the necessity of aligning national energy strategies, policies, and funding with regional realities and priorities, particularly within carbon-intensive economies. The findings also provide policy-relevant insights to enhance regional adaptability and facilitate energy transitions that adhere to global climate commitments.