Abstract
Transport is a vast and complex socio-technical system, and despite a clear
need to reduce dependence on fossil fuels due to undesirable environmental impacts, it is
largely locked into business-as-usual. Systems approaches are a useful way to help make
sense of multiple competing influences which may be simultaneously driving change and
supporting the status quo. This paper applies qualitative system dynamics modelling to
help interpret the results of a Delphi study into global transport transitions, involving 22
international experts in various aspects of transport. The main contribution of the paper is
its exploration of the use of system dynamics (SD) modelling to interpret the Delphi
findings. SD modelling was used to reveal and elucidate the causal arguments put forward
by the expert panel about the factors driving business-as-usual, the factors creating barriers
to more sustainable transport systems, and the drivers of change. The SD model is used to
explore and expose the key causal patterns at play, and how these interact to both support
and hinder change. The resulting model shows the complex, interdependent dynamics
involved in supporting the status quo. Even at the relatively high level of analysis reported
here,the model is useful in revealing interdependencies between parts of the system,where
change in one part may well have knock-on effects elsewhere in the system. In particular
the model reveals the strong reinforcing loops that act to minimise the impact of change
drivers and thus retain the dominance of automobility. The result is a system that is highly
dependent on the continued existence of key reinforcements such as policies that subsidise
fossil fuels.From a methodological perspective,the outcomes of the Delphi study provided
a rich source of qualitative material which was highly suitable for developing a system
dynamics model.