Abstract
Antarctica's unique marine ecosystems are threatened by the arrival of non-native marine species on rafting ocean objects. The harsh environmental conditions in Antarctica prevent the establishment of many such species, but warming around the continent and the opening up of ice-free regions may already be reducing these barriers. Although recent genomic work has revealed that rafts-potentially carrying diverse coastal passengers-reach Antarctica from sub-Antarctic islands, Antarctica's vulnerability to incursions from Southern Hemisphere continents remains unknown. Here we use 0.1° global ocean model simulations to explore whether drift connections exist between more northern, temperate landmasses and the Antarctic coastline. We show that passively floating objects can drift to Antarctica not only from sub-Antarctic islands, but also from continental locations north of the Subtropical Front including Australia, South Africa, South America and Zealandia. We find that the Antarctic Peninsula is the region at highest risk for non-native species introductions arriving by natural oceanic dispersal, highlighting the vulnerability of this region, which is also at risk from introductions via ship traffic and rapid warming. The widespread connections with sub-Antarctic and temperate landmasses, combined with an increasing abundance of marine anthropogenic rafting vectors, poses a growing risk to Antarctic marine ecosystems, especially as environmental conditions around Antarctica are projected to become more suitable for non-native species in the future.Antarctica's unique marine ecosystems are threatened by the arrival of non-native marine species on rafting ocean objects. The harsh environmental conditions in Antarctica prevent the establishment of many such species, but warming around the continent and the opening up of ice-free regions may already be reducing these barriers. Although recent genomic work has revealed that rafts-potentially carrying diverse coastal passengers-reach Antarctica from sub-Antarctic islands, Antarctica's vulnerability to incursions from Southern Hemisphere continents remains unknown. Here we use 0.1° global ocean model simulations to explore whether drift connections exist between more northern, temperate landmasses and the Antarctic coastline. We show that passively floating objects can drift to Antarctica not only from sub-Antarctic islands, but also from continental locations north of the Subtropical Front including Australia, South Africa, South America and Zealandia. We find that the Antarctic Peninsula is the region at highest risk for non-native species introductions arriving by natural oceanic dispersal, highlighting the vulnerability of this region, which is also at risk from introductions via ship traffic and rapid warming. The widespread connections with sub-Antarctic and temperate landmasses, combined with an increasing abundance of marine anthropogenic rafting vectors, poses a growing risk to Antarctic marine ecosystems, especially as environmental conditions around Antarctica are projected to become more suitable for non-native species in the future.