Abstract
Diagnostic limitations challenge management of clinically indistinguishable acute infectious illness globally. Gene expression classification models show great promise distinguishing causes of fever. We generated transcriptional data for a 294-participant (USA, Sri Lanka) discovery cohort with adjudicated viral or bacterial infections of diverse etiology or non-infectious disease mimics. We then derived and cross-validated gene expression classifiers including: 1) a single model to distinguish bacterial vs. viral (Global Fever-Bacterial/Viral [GF-B/V]) and 2) a two-model system to discriminate bacterial and viral in the context of noninfection (Global Fever-Bacterial/Viral/Non-infectious [GF-B/V/N]). We then translated to a multiplex RT-PCR assay and independent validation involved 101 participants (USA, Sri Lanka, Australia, Cambodia, Tanzania). The GF-B/V model discriminated bacterial from viral infection in the discovery cohort an area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC) of 0.93. Validation in an independent cohort demonstrated the GF-B/V model had an AUROC of 0.84 (95% CI 0.76-0.90) with overall accuracy of 81.6% (95% CI 72.7-88.5). Performance did not vary with age, demographics, or site. Host transcriptional response diagnostics distinguish bacterial and viral illness across global sites with diverse endemic pathogens.