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Low Hazard–High Risk: A Case Study of the Active Mangatangi Fault
Journal article   Open access   Peer reviewed

Low Hazard–High Risk: A Case Study of the Active Mangatangi Fault

Hannah E. Martin, Jennifer D. Eccles, James D. Muirhead and Mark W. Stirling
New Zealand journal of geology and geophysics, Vol.69(2), e70060
26/05/2026
Handle:
https://hdl.handle.net/10523/51208

Abstract

low hazard–high risk low seismicity Mangatangi Fault paleoseismology South Auckland Faulting
Activity on low deformation rate faults are challenging to quantify and comparatively understudied. One such fault, the Mangatangi Fault, strikes NE‐SW along the southeastern flanks of the Hunua Ranges c. 52 km south of New Zealand's most populous city, Auckland. It is part of a series of regional normal faults that reactivated since the Miocene; yet, its slip rate and earthquake recurrence interval is poorly constrained. In this study, we present geomorphic, geochronological, and geophysical data supporting vertical fault displacement rates of 0.017–0.27 mm yr−1 . Holocene rates (0.14–0.27 mm yr−1 ) compared to long–term rates (0.017–0.049 mm yr−1 ) highlight temporal variability in fault behaviour and earthquake clustering. The maximum earthquake magnitude is estimated as M W 6.8–6.9, with a recurrence interval ranging anywhere between 8100–127,100 years. Although ruptures along the Mangatangi Fault are interpreted to be infrequent over geologic timescales, dating of truncated sediments in the piedmont scarp constrain at least two Late Quaternary events, including one in the early Holocene. These results indicate that the Mangatangi Fault may pose greater seismic hazard to the Auckland area than previously considered, which, given high exposure and vulnerability, could translate into significant risk.
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https://doi.org/10.1002/jgo2.70060View
Published (Version of record) Open CC BY-NC-ND V4.0

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