Abstract
Introduction Tobacco companies claim that substantially reducing tobacco retail outlets in Aotearoa New Zealand will increase illicit tobacco trade and crime. However, we know little about whether people who smoke anticipate using illicit tobacco once this measure is implemented. Exploring current illicit tobacco use and expected market development would clarify the likely scale of this potential problem. Aims and Methods We undertook online in-depth interviews with 24 adults who smoke and explored their experiences of illicit tobacco, perceptions of illicit market growth once legal tobacco became less available, intentions to engage in this market, and potential measures that could curb illicit market development. We interpreted the data using a qualitative descriptive approach. Results Few participants had purchased illegally imported or stolen tobacco. While most did not know how to access illicit tobacco products, many expected illicit trade and crime would increase, if legal tobacco became difficult to access. While cheaper tobacco appealed to many, most perceived illicit supply routes as unsafe and saw products obtained via these sources as likely to be of poor quality. Few suggested measures to control illicit markets, though a minority called for social reforms to reduce poverty, which they thought fueled illegal practices. Conclusions Although illicit trade may appear to threaten new policy initiatives, participants' limited knowledge of these markets and concerns regarding product safety suggest illegal tobacco may pose less of a threat than tobacco companies have claimed. Policy makers should not be deterred from reducing tobacco availability by industry arguments. Implications Although participants believed illicit trade would increase if the number of tobacco retailers was substantially reduced, few anticipated purchasing illegal tobacco. They viewed supply routes as unsafe and product quality as likely to be low. Industry predictions that illicit tobacco trade will grow if tobacco becomes less available do not reflect how people who smoke expect to engage with these markets and should not deter the introduction of retail reduction measures.