Abstract
Background: The prevalence of diabetes has been increasing in Aotearoa New Zealand by approximately 7% per year, and is three times higher among Māori and Pacific peoples than in Europeans. The depth of the diabetes epidemic, and the expansive breadth of services required for its management, elevate the need for high-quality evidence on the projected future burden of this complex disease.
Methods: In this manuscript we have projected the prevalence of diabetes (type 1 and type 2 combined) out to 2040-2044 using age-period-cohort modelling. National-level data from central government on diabetes prevalence (Virtual Diabetes Register) were used to describe recent diabetes prevalence trends (2006-2019) by age group, calendar period and birth cohort, with these trends used to project diabetes prevalence out from 2020 to 2044.
Results: Aotearoa New Zealand will experience a significant increase in the absolute volume of prevalent diabetes, rising by nearly 90% to more than 500,000 by 2044. The age-standardised prevalence of diabetes will increase from around 3.9% of the population (268,248) to 5.0% overall (502,358). The prevalence and volume of diabetes diagnoses will increase most drastically for Pacific peoples, most notably Pacific females for whom diabetes prevalence is projected to increase to 17% of the population by 2044.
Conclusions: The increases in the future burden of diabetes mellitus projected here will heighten pressure on health services. Immediate action is required to reduce new cases of diabetes and other obesity-related illnesses. Fiscal policies to prevent these diseases, coupled with population-level interventions to more effectively manage and control diabetes, are effective tools for reducing disease burden.