Abstract
We have tested and evaluated the first generation of synthetic earthquake catalogs produced by an earthquake rupture simulator for New Zealand (NZ). The catalog was generated using the Rate and State Earthquake Simulator (RSQSim), which, using the framework of rate- and state-dependent friction, can generate hundreds of thousands of years of synthetic seismicity. This RSQSim catalog employed fault geometry, kinematic, and slip-rate estimates from the 2010 NZ National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM 2010), with a hybrid loading technique used to eliminate physically unrealistic stress concentration at fault edges. We first compared fault-slip rates from hybrid loading and seismic moment rates obtained from the RSQSim catalog with the input NZ NSHM 2010. We then calculated probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) estimates at 10% probability of exceedance (PoE), 2% PoE, and 0.5% PoE in 50 yr using the RSQSim rupture sets and compared these to equivalent PSH estimates from the NZ NSHM 2010. Our findings illustrate slip rates resulting from the hybrid loading method, seismic activity rates, and hazard estimates generated by the simulator closely align with the NZ NSHM 2010 in the South Island. In this region, crustal faults primarily accommodate deformation. Conversely, the hybrid loading underestimates slip rates on the North Island’s crustal faults, whereas the implementation of the Hikurangi subduction zone interface into RSQSim results in relatively high PSH estimates in the North Island. This suggests that further refinement of the RSQSim simulator is needed before it can be used in end-user applications in New Zealand.