Abstract
Eutrophication of shallow coastal ecosystems often manifests as dense mats of opportunistic macroalgae, degraded underlying sediments and displacement of ecologically important primary producers including seagrass beds. Ecological thresholds of drivers that cause these shifts in ecosystem state are needed to manage eutrophication symptoms before tipping points are crossed. This study quantifies total nitrogen (TN) load thresholds for abrupt changes in ecologically important seagrass habitat and the appearance of nuisance macroalgae as a function of estimated catchment TN load to shallow, intertidal estuaries in New Zealand. Results indicate that the extents of both macrophyte types are strongly governed by increasing TN load to the estuaries, while total suspended sediment load was not significant alone or as an interaction term. Seagrass extent was unpredictable below a critical TN load envelope (< 50 mg N m(-2) d(-1)), likely because there are additional factors than TN that influence seagrass cover, but once surpassed, seagrass became restricted to less than 10% of intertidal area or absent. Conversely, nuisance macroalgae was predominantly absent unless TN load exceeded 41.15 +/- 21.1 mg N m(-2) d(-1), expanding in extent by 2.7% of intertidal area for every 50 mg N m(-2) d(-1) increase above threshold levels. This research underscores the importance of managing diffuse nitrogen inputs to safeguard the structure and function of shallow estuarine ecosystems before tipping points in dominant macrophyte type are crossed.