Abstract
Binge-drinking prevalence among New Zealand adolescents has declined sharply since 2001, as it has in many other high-income countries. Other adolescent risk behaviours (e.g. smoking, cannabis use and precocious sexual activity) have also declined, raising the possibility of common underlying drivers. This study investigates potential contributing factors – both factors that predict risk behaviours in general, and alcohol-specific factors – and the extent to which they account for the decline in binge drinking.
The study used nationally representative survey data collected in 2001 (N = 6513), 2007 (N = 5934) and 2012 (N = 5489). The outcome measure was prevalence of past month binge drinking (5+ drinks/session). Predictor variables included factors that predict risk behaviours in general (parental monitoring, family attachment, school attachment, having a part-time job, time spent hanging out with friends); alcohol-specific factors (parental alcohol use, adolescent attitude toward alcohol use); and attitude toward and current use of tobacco and cannabis. Likelihood of binge drinking was modelled for each survey year (ref=2001), adjusting for demographic factors. Predictors were added to this base model, with the degree of attenuation of the odds ratio for year indicating the extent to which the included predictor(s) accounted for the trend.
Compared with 2001 the odds of binge-drinking in 2012 were 0.33. The strongest independent contributor to the decline was adolescent attitude toward alcohol use, followed by current cannabis use, then current tobacco use. Collectively, general factors in home, school and leisure settings did not significantly contribute to the downward trend in binge drinking.
Decreasing acceptability of alcohol use among adolescents was the most important identified contributor to adolescent binge-drinking decline. Drinking, smoking and cannabis use trends were empirically linked, yet the decline in binge drinking was not significantly explained by the included predictors common to risk behaviours in general.