Abstract
This doctoral research project was undertaken through the University of Otago’s Department
of Preventive and Social Medicine, in conjunction with the School of Geography and Centre
for Sustainability, Dunedin. We sought to understand the health and wellbeing effects of
climate change-related flooding and sea-level rise in the greater South Dunedin area, so as to
better inform health and equity-focussed adaptation decision-making and policy. Participants
were guided through a qualitative, participatory system dynamics (pSD) modelling process.
The first stage of the project involved a literature review, followed by 32 individual interviews
with community stakeholders, local government staff, and technical experts, in which they
were asked about their understandings of how flooding and sea-level rise affect health and
wellbeing. From this, we developed a set of six cause and effect maps (Causal Loop Diagrams,
CLDs) that captured the relevant causal relationships between flooding, sea-level rise, health
and wellbeing. These maps combined participants’ knowledge with existing evidence. They
were used as the basis for two group workshops, in which participants further applied ‘big
picture’ systems thinking to refine these cause and effect relationships and develop a shared
understanding of the issues and potential implications for adaptation.
Six CLDs are presented and discussed in this report. They cover the following themes:
• community-led development and participation in decision-making
• quality of housing
• the housing market
• the insurance market
• economic effects of flooding and sea-level rise
• access issues arising from flooding
Together these CLDs reveal many interconnected influences and feedback loops, or circular
causality, that show how flooding and sea-level rise risk worsening a wide range of existing
wellbeing issues in South Dunedin. These include high levels of poverty, poor quality housing,
housing unaffordability, and historical underinvestment in the area. Potential intervention
points were identified that can be used to inform wellbeing-focussed adaptation planning and
policy.