This research summary has been developed for the South Dunedin Future (SDF) programme, a joint initiative between the Dunedin City Council and the Otago Regional Council to inform their adaptation planning for the greater South Dunedin area. Much of the area was originally developed through land reclamation and development that has removed and diverted natural water ways. Climate change will bring challenges such as rising seas and more storms that, in time, will make parts of the area wetter and unsuited to housing and other intensive uses.

At the time of writing, SDF have identified sixteen possible adaptation approaches for South Dunedin. These can be grouped into Protect, Avoid, Retreat and Accommodate. Protect refers to staying in place and building defenses. Accommodate also involves staying in place, but includes making changes to buildings and infrastructure to improve resilience. Retreat is purposefully moving away from areas where the risk is too high and avoid involves staying away from areas of high risk in the first instance.

Some of these approaches may result in significant land-use change in parts of South Dunedin. One of these significant changes could be to allow water to re-establish itself in specific areas in greater South Dunedin (Retreat and Accommodate). In these places, homes and businesses may need to make way for green/blue spaces such as wetlands and parks that would act as temporary ponding areas during flood events.

The second significant change could be through building more intensive housing in some safer locations in South Dunedin, so that people could stay in the area (Protect and Avoid). In those places, land-use could change from the low density housing that currently covers most of South Dunedin to more intensive housing.

This report discusses the implications of these two key potential changes, drawing from current international and national research. It identifies key benefits and issues associated with creating new green/blue spaces and intensifying housing, and provides some solutions to address the issues. The final section proposes a framework to ensure the justice and wellbeing implications of these changes are considered in decision-making.