Abstract
In this Briefing we apply 'downward counterfactual analysis' to Cyclone Gabrielle, considering how it could have been worse, to derive valuable insights for future disaster mitigation. The ‘worse case’ scenarios include higher storm severity (as per aspects of some previous cyclones), worse timing, hitting Auckland directly, and poorer response by the public and authorities. This type of downward counterfactual analysis should be conducted for other disasters to better inform a wider range and depth of future disaster mitigation efforts.