Abstract
Pacific peoples have been consistently undercounted in Aotearoa’s official statistics, distorting population estimates and undermining equity in health, services, and resource allocation. Stats NZ’s shift to an admin data-first census, after two censuses that failed to equitably represent all New Zealanders, risks worsening these gaps by relying on fragmented records and flawed probabilistic linkages. This method falls short of Stats NZ’s accuracy benchmarks, especially for mobile and underserved groups like Pacific communities, and key issues, such as ethnicity misclassification, remain unresolved.
This Briefing argues that the admin-first model cannot support equitable health outcomes. It proposes a centralised, event-based population IT system with standardised demographic fields. Such a system would improve accuracy, reduce duplication, lower costs, support data sovereignty, and enable future-proof planning. It would also strengthen survey design through smaller, more precise, cost-effective samples. A robust, person-centred statistical foundation is essential to restore trust and achieve fairer outcomes for Pacific peoples in Aotearoa.