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dc.contributor.advisorParry, Matthew
dc.contributor.authorWilks, Ben Nathan
dc.date.available2020-09-27T20:08:46Z
dc.date.copyright2020
dc.identifier.citationWilks, B. N. (2020). Modelling Invasive Species using Markov Jump Processes (Thesis, Master of Science). University of Otago. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10523/10409en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10523/10409
dc.description.abstractPredicting the dispersal of an invasive species over a heterogeneous region is a difficult yet important task, since these predictions can inform biosecurity efforts and threatened industries. A spatially-discrete population model of the citrus pest and disease vector Diaphorina citri is developed. The population is stratified by life cycle and sex, allowing phenological processes and second order interactions to be modelled effectively. The model is formalised as a continuous time Markov jump process and simulated using a tau-leaping algorithm. The model introduces several unknown parameters which are related to mating, trapping, density dependence, and dispersal. The dispersal kernel incorporates both natural and human mediated dispersal; the latter uses a gravity model. Three example parameter estimation problems are presented which use both real and simulated data. Response surface optimisation techniques and bootstrap confidence intervals were used to estimate the parameters.
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherUniversity of Otago
dc.rightsAll items in OUR Archive are provided for private study and research purposes and are protected by copyright with all rights reserved unless otherwise indicated.
dc.subjectStochastic Processes
dc.subjectInvasive species
dc.subjecttau leaping
dc.subjectEcological modelling
dc.titleModelling Invasive Species using Markov Jump Processes
dc.typeThesis
dc.date.updated2020-09-25T03:29:58Z
dc.language.rfc3066en
thesis.degree.disciplineDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics
thesis.degree.nameMaster of Science
thesis.degree.grantorUniversity of Otago
thesis.degree.levelMasters
otago.openaccessOpen
otago.evidence.presentYes
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