Impact of sugar-sweetened beverage taxes on price, import and sale volumes in an island: interrupted time series analysis
Teng, Andrea; Genç, Murat; Herman, Josephine; Signal, Louise; Areai, Danny; Wilson, Nick
Objective To evaluate the impact of changes in import tariffs on sweetened beverages. Design Interrupted time series analysis examined sweetened beverage tariff increases of 40% to 60% in 2008 and to 75% in 2012; and an approximately 11% decrease in 2014 when an excise tax replaced the tariff. Post-tax trends were compared with a counterfactual modelled on the pre-tax trend for: quarterly price of an indicator beverage, monthly beverage import volumes (both 2001 to 2017), and quarterly sales volumes (2012 to 2017). In a controlled analysis taxed beverage imports were compared to a sugary snacks control. Setting Cook Islands Participants NA Results In the first year, the 2008 tariff increased the price of the selected indicator soft drink by 7.3% (CI: 6.3% to 8.3%) but after the 2012 tariff increase it decreased by 13.9% (CI: -14.9% to -12.8%). At the same time the import volumes of taxed beverages decreased by 13.2% (CI: -38.1% to 17.8%) and 2.9% (CI: -41.6% to 72.5%) respectively; and decreased by 24.8% (CI: -36.9 to -9.8) and 10.2% (CI: -37.1 to 37.5) in the controlled analysis. After the 2014 tax decrease, the price of the indicator soft drink decreased by 23.6% (CI: -26.0% to -21.1%), sweetened beverage imports increased by 4.5% (CI: -39.5% to 156.0%), and sales of full-sugar soft drinks increased by 31% (CI: -21% to 243%). Conclusions The increased import tariffs on sweetened beverages appeared to be effective for reducing import volumes, but this was partly reversed by the reduced tax/tariff in 2014.
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Rights Statement: Accepted Manuscript
Keywords: tax; excise; tariff; trade; nutrition
Research Type: Journal Article