An innovative approach to National Football League standings using optimal bonus points
Winchester, Niven; Stefani, Raymond T.
Bonus points provide a simple way to improve the accuracy of league standings. We investigate the inclusion of bonuses in the National Football League (NFL) using a prediction model built on league points. Both touchdown-based and narrow-loss bonuses are shown to be significant. Our preferred system awards four points for a win, two for a tie, one point for scoring four or more touchdowns and one point for losing by seven or fewer points. Such a system would also make it easier for supporters to identify playoff contenders and place importance on otherwise meaningless end-of-game plays.
Publisher: Department of Economics, University of Otago
Series number: 905
Keywords: sports predictions; NFL; Tournament Design
Research Type: Discussion Paper