An innovative approach to National Football League standings using optimal bonus points

Winchester, Niven; Stefani, Raymond T.

An innovative approach to National Football League standings using optimal bonus points

Winchester, Niven; Stefani, Raymond T.

Cite this item: Winchester, N., & Stefani, R. T. (2009). An innovative approach to National Football League standings using optimal bonus points (Economics Discussion Papers Series No. 905). Department of Economics, University of Otago. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10523/1134

Permanent link to OUR Archive version: http://hdl.handle.net/10523/1134

Date: 2009-06-01

Publisher: Department of Economics, University of Otago

Pages: 33

Series: Economics Discussion Papers Series

Series number: 905

Keywords: sports predictions; NFL; Tournament Design

Research Type: Discussion Paper

Abstract:

Bonus points provide a simple way to improve the accuracy of league standings. We investigate the inclusion of bonuses in the National Football League (NFL) using a prediction model built on league points. Both touchdown-based and narrow-loss bonuses are shown to be significant. Our preferred system awards four points for a win, two for a tie, one point for scoring four or more touchdowns and one point for losing by seven or fewer points. Such a system would also make it easier for supporters to identify playoff contenders and place importance on otherwise meaningless end-of-game plays.

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