Liberating Middle Earth: how will changes in the global trading system affect New Zealand?

Abstract

Trade liberalisation has gained momentum in recent decades due to the increased popularity of free trade areas and the continued progress of multilateral liberalisation via the World Trade Organisation (WTO). We analyse how likely changes in the global trading environment will influence New Zealand – a small, relatively open economy with a comparative advantage in the world’s most protected sector – using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of global production and trade. We find that most bilateral free trade agreements have a small but positive impact on New Zealand welfare and multilateral trade liberalisation generates significant benefits for New Zealand.