Social determinants of voter choice in the 2002 New Zealand general election: An electoral-level study

Abstract

This paper discusses the events surrounding the 2002 New Zealand General Election and construction of models of vote choice using data from this election. The effect of different social characteristics on party vote choice at the electoral level is assessed by running ordinary least squares regressions. Special steps are taken to ensure formal tests are accepted and outliers omitted where necessary. Results of these regressions are then compared to the findings of previous studies. While those variables found to be most important in previous studies could not be included in this study, as they were more of an individual nature, my finding is here that ethnicity, income and the unemployment benefit played crucial roles in determining vote choice in 2002.