An evaluation of technical trading rules: Evidence from the New Zealand share market

Abstract

This study has assessed whether an investor could follow a technical trading rule on 10 individual stocks from the New Zealand Share market and earn a superior return to a 'buy and hold' strategy of an equally weighted portfolio of those same 10 stocks. A five year sample period is used to test a range of simple and well known technical trading rules, with the best performing technical trading rule then applied to the post sample period to determine if a superior performance can be earned. A range of practical implementation issues, including brokerage costs and capital gains tax, were introduced and accounted for in the assessment of the two strategies. The results have been consistent with technical analysis being unable to generate returns in excess of a buy and hold strategy in an out of sample period. Several issues relating directly to technical analysis are subsequently discussed and applied in a New Zealand setting.