Mood Congruency in Affective Forecasting: The Effects of Current Mood in Near versus Distant Future Predictions

Abstract

Affective forecasting occurs when an individual predicts their emotional response to a future target. The current study looks at the effect of current mood on affective forecasting. Based on Bower’s (1981) mood congruity effect, it was argued that affective forecasts would be biased towards the direction of an individual’s current affect, depending on the temporal distance of the event that is being predicted. Two competing hypotheses were tested, whereby it was argued that the effects of current mood were either more influential in the near future, or in the distant future. The second hypothesis was supported, while the first hypothesis was contradicted, whereby participants showed a mood congruity effect in the distant future, negative events. Results showed that the valence of the predicted event acted as a potential second moderator to the effects of current mood. The implications of these findings on the impact bias are also discussed.