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dc.contributor.authorBerg, Nathan
dc.contributor.authorBiele, G
dc.contributor.authorGigerenzer, G
dc.date.available2013-05-10T00:03:46Z
dc.date.copyright2013-04
dc.identifier.citationBerg, N., Biele, G., & Gigerenzer, G. (2013). Does Consistency Predict Accuracy of Beliefs?: Economists Surveyed About PSA (Economics Discussion Papers No. 1308). University of Otago. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10523/3987en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10523/3987
dc.description.abstractWhen economists' subjective beliefs about the sensitivity and positive predictive value of the Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) test are internally consistent (i.e., satisfying Bayes' Rule), their beliefs about prostate cancer risk are less accurate than among those with inconsistent beliefs. Using a loss function framework, we investigate but cannot find evidence that inconsistent beliefs lead to inaccuracy, different PSA decisions, or economic losses. Economists' PSA decisions appear to depend much more on the advice of doctors and family members than on beliefs about cancer risks and the pros/cons of PSA testing, which have little to no joint explanatory power.en_NZ
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.publisherUniversity of Otagoen_NZ
dc.relation.ispartofseriesEconomics Discussion Papers Seriesen_NZ
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/*
dc.titleDoes Consistency Predict Accuracy of Beliefs?: Economists Surveyed About PSAen_NZ
dc.typeDiscussion Paperen_NZ
dc.date.updated2013-05-09T21:37:33Z
otago.schoolDepartment of Economicsen_NZ
otago.openaccessOpen
otago.relation.number1308en_NZ
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Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported
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