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dc.contributor.advisorFletcher, David
dc.contributor.authorJowett, Timothy Winston Dudley
dc.date.available2013-06-05T01:19:01Z
dc.date.copyright2013
dc.identifier.citationJowett, T. W. D. (2013). Statistical Modelling of Football Results (Thesis, Master of Science). University of Otago. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10523/4055en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10523/4055
dc.description.abstractThe structure of this thesis is summarised below: 1. In Chapter 2 we will introduce some commonly used football result prediction models. The majority of these models will be used in the analysis described in subsequent Chapters. 2. We will discuss some of the basic principles of gambling theory in Chapter 3, along with definitions relating to the measurement of betting success. We will also introduce the Kelly criterion, a commonly used method for determining the size of bets in an optimal manner. 3. In Chapter 4 we review goodness of fit testing for football prediction models. Key issues include correlation between home and away goals and over (or under) inflation of draws. We will then propose an alternative approach based on the distribution of goal differences. 4. In Chapter 5 we present the results of three simulation studies. The first study illustrates the application of statistical models to a betting application based on the Kelly criterion using simulated data with the aim of comparing different betting strategies. In the second study we use data from past seasons of the English Premier League to determine the profitability of betting using the Kelly Criterion. In the third study we compare two equivalent models using Bayesian and maximum likelihood methods of inference (for the remainder of this thesis, we will often use the term “Bayesian model” to refer to a model where inference is performed using the Bayesian methodology and “Maximum likelihood Model” to refer to a model where inference is performed using maximum likelihood). 5. Finally, in Chapter 6 we introduce a state-space model that seeks to model change over time in team-specific attacking and defensive abilities.
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherUniversity of Otago
dc.rightsAll items in OUR Archive are provided for private study and research purposes and are protected by copyright with all rights reserved unless otherwise indicated.
dc.subjectFootball
dc.subjectstatistical
dc.subjectKelly
dc.subjectbivariate
dc.titleStatistical Modelling of Football Results
dc.typeThesis
dc.date.updated2013-06-04T22:59:35Z
dc.language.rfc3066en
thesis.degree.disciplineMathematics and Statistics
thesis.degree.nameMaster of Science
thesis.degree.grantorUniversity of Otago
thesis.degree.levelMasters
otago.interloanno
otago.openaccessAbstract Only
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