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dc.contributor.authorGale, Christopher
dc.contributor.authorGlue, Paul
dc.contributor.authorGallagher, Sarah
dc.contributor.authorGray, Andrew
dc.identifier.citationGale, C., Glue, P., Gallagher, S., & Gray, A. (2013). Bayesean Analysis as a Predictor of outcome rate. Presented at the World Psychiatric Association International Congress.en
dc.descriptionAttaching the electronic copy of the abstract book.en_NZ
dc.description.abstractPower calculations in clinical trials depend on an estimation of a change in effect size, and this depends on an estimation of the rate of the (measured) event in the population. It may be that using a Baysian approach authors would be able to better estimate the rate of events, which would help with estimation of power. We used a data-set on early intervention described elsewhere (Gale, in press). We identified three where a transition rate and was available and we could estimate a post screen probability of transition to psychosis. Using Bayes' theorem, we estimated the screen positive (using the CAARMS) transition rate in the first trial at 11.1%. Screen positive participants, at six month follow-up, had a transition rate of 10.1%. (Yung 2006). The same authors reported two year follow-up: we estimated the transition rate at 17.2% and the reported rate was 16.0%. Another author used the PRIME questionnaire: we estimated the rate of transition at 17.2% and the reported six month follow-up rate was 11.9%. These results are preliminary. However, this may be a more appropriate method than using earlier trials, particularly if the rate of events is changing (McGorry, 2002)en_NZ
dc.rightsAttribution 3.0 Unported*
dc.subjectEarly Intervention
dc.titleBayesean Analysis as a Predictor of outcome rate.en_NZ
dc.typeConference or Workshop Item (Oral presentation)en_NZ
otago.schoolDepartment of Psychological Medicine, Dunedin School of Medicineen_NZ
otago.schoolPreventive and Community Health, Dunedin School of Medicineen_NZ
dc.description.refereedPeer Revieweden_NZ
otago.event.placeVienna, Austriaen_NZ
otago.event.titleWorld Psychiatric Association International Congressen_NZ
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Attribution 3.0 Unported
Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as Attribution 3.0 Unported