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dc.contributor.advisorHajzler, Chris
dc.contributor.advisorGenc, Murat
dc.contributor.authorMiller, Evan
dc.date.available2014-04-01T19:41:04Z
dc.date.copyright2014
dc.identifier.citationMiller, E. (2014). Estimating the Economic Effects of the Canterbury Earthquakes Sequence using Synthetic Control Methods (Thesis, Master of Business). University of Otago. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10523/4743en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10523/4743
dc.description.abstractSince, 2010, New Zealand, Japan and Haiti have suffered from large scale damages as the result of earthquakes. Along with the devastating immediate losses associated with such disasters, particularly the loss of lives, those exposed to such events may in addition suffer from prolonged negative effects on the wider economy. This thesis examines the economic effects of the Canterbury earthquakes, with a focus on the impacts on the tourism and trade sectors. Specifically, the synthetic control methodology pioneered by Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003) is used to estimate the effects of the earthquakes on regional GDP and its derivatives, tourism and international trade. The effect of the earthquake on tourism is investigated by looking at regional guest nights and regional international flight arrivals, while the effect of the event on trade is investigated through regional gross imports and regional gross exports. The synthetic control methodology is a data driven procedure that uses regions throughout New Zealand to generate a counter-factual which represents the Canterbury region if it were relatively unaffected by the earthquake. The difference between Canterbury and its counter-factual estimates the causal effect of the earthquake events for the region. The effect of the earthquake on Canterbury’s tourism is significant, while the effects on regional GDP, international arrivals and exports are inconclusive with regards to statistical significance. As at 2012Q4, the average effect of the earthquakes on Canterbury (the difference between Synthetic Canterbury and Treated Canterbury) indicate that regional GDP fell by 4.9% and regional regional guest nights fell by 22.9%. International arrivals fell by 17.7% reductions in imports were seen to be negligible and exports fell by 13.3%. Placebo tests and regression based techniques are used to verify the robustness of these results.
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherUniversity of Otago
dc.rightsAll items in OUR Archive are provided for private study and research purposes and are protected by copyright with all rights reserved unless otherwise indicated.
dc.subjectCanterbury
dc.subjectEarthquake
dc.subjectNew
dc.subjectZealand
dc.subjectRegional
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectTourism
dc.subjectTrade
dc.subjectEvan
dc.subjectMiller
dc.titleEstimating the Economic Effects of the Canterbury Earthquakes Sequence using Synthetic Control Methods
dc.typeThesis
dc.date.updated2014-04-01T05:02:15Z
dc.language.rfc3066en
thesis.degree.disciplineEconomics
thesis.degree.nameMaster of Business
thesis.degree.grantorUniversity of Otago
thesis.degree.levelMasters
otago.openaccessOpen
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