The Economic Vote in New Zealand. An analysis of how macroeconomic conditions and perceptions of the economy affect voter behaviour

Abstract

A large body of research suggests the performance of the economy has a significant effect on voter behaviour. However, there has been limited analysis of this issue in relation to New Zealand. This thesis seeks to correct this gap in the literature. It provides a review of the theoretical support for economic voting theory and discusses three key methods of analysis: vote functions, popularity functions, and the individual-level study. It undertakes a macro-popularity function analysis to determine the effect of impartial macroeconomic conditions on voter behaviour in New Zealand between 1978 and 2015. This is followed by a micro-individual analysis that determines the effect perceptions of the economy have on voter behaviour in New Zealand between 2002 and 2014. It finds the evidence to support economic voting in New Zealand is mixed. The macro-analysis suggests macroeconomic conditions have a minimal to moderate effect on voter behaviour. The microanalysis finds perceptions of the economy have a stronger effect, but that partisanship is a far more important indicator of vote choice.