Optimal Bonus Points in the Australian Football League

Winchester, Niven; Lenten, Liam J. A.

Optimal Bonus Points in the Australian Football League

Lenten, Liam J. A.; Winchester, Niven

Cite this item: Lenten, L. J. A., & Winchester, N. (2009). Optimal Bonus Points in the Australian Football League (Economics Discussion Papers Series No. 903). Department of Economics, University of Otago. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10523/895

Permanent link to OUR Archive version: http://hdl.handle.net/10523/895

Date: 2009-03-01

Publisher: Department of Economics, University of Otago

Pages: 26

Series: Economics Discussion Papers Series

Series number: 903

Keywords: Sport; Predictions; Estimation; Tournament Design

Research Type: Discussion Paper

Abstract:

Bonus point systems are a popular tournament design feature in some sports. We consider a bonus point system for the Australian Football League (AFL). In this paper, we utilise league points as a measure of team strength in a prediction model and choose the allocation of points to maximise prediction accuracy. For AFL data extending over seasons 1997-2008, we determine a bonus points system that does a better job at revealing strong teams than the current allocation of league points. We conclude that there is considerable scope for the introduction bonus points to improve tournament design in the AFL.

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