High Value Manufacturing in New Zealand to 2040

Abstract

The Work Futures Otago project analyses and forecasts the trends, future projections and potential disruptions in New Zealand with a time horizon of 2040. We utilise the power of a narrative approach to construct scenarios that draw together the drivers, differing voices and potential consequences of long-term change. By engaging people in narratives, we focus on perspectives and build sensitivities around future plausibilities. We develop scenarios using the Delphi technique to engage experts in conversations about the future. Our rigorous and in-depth data analysis informs stakeholders, policymakers and civic leaders. In this project the Work Futures Otago team identifies a future vision for the transition from New Zealand’s traditional manufacturing base to a greater reliance on the high added value knowledge of design and manufacture, decoupling these from the traditional supply chain and manufacturing requirements. This project adopted a New Zealand focus and utilised a panel of experts from key institutions such as Trade and Enterprise as well as leading CEOs in High Value Manufacturing (HVM) industries. The aim was to explore the future of HVM in New Zealand and to therefore understand the implications for New Zealand Inc. Conclusions drawn from this study potentially empower organisational resilience and inform socio-economic strategic decision-making by key stakeholders within New Zealand over the next decades.